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The sale of convertibles had a banner year in 2001, and we aren't talking
about car sales.
Convertibles are hybrid securities -either interest-paying bonds or
preferred (nonvoting) stock -that can be swapped for common shares of
the issuing company's stock at a looking to participate in the stock
market, but who like their participation more on the tame side. While
not all financial planners are enthusiastic about convertibles, many
like their diversification value because they are not strongly correlated
to stocks, and they recommend a five to ten percent portfolio allocation.
Because selecting good convertibles is tricky, and issues available
to individual investors are limited, many investors may find it better
to invest through mutual funds. Whichever way you invest, it's important
to understand some basics about how convertibles work, including their
risks, and what makes them potentially attractive.
A convertible bond pays out a fixed coupon rate, typically semi-annually,
and has a fixed maturity. The yield is usually higher than the company's
common stock dividend, but lower than the company's nonconvertible bonds.
The preferred stock version usually pays out quarterly a higher fixed
dividend, with no maturity. Both can be converted to a predetermined
number of shares of common stock. The bond version normally is considered
safer than its preferred version because bondholders have priority over
stockholders should the company go bankrupt.
With each version, you can either sell the convertible or convert to
the company's common stock and then sell the shares. The ability to
convert is, of course, what makes convertibles attractive. If bond prices
fall or the stock price shoots up, it can pay off to convert; if the
stock tumbles, the interest-paying feature of the convertible tends
to blunt the drop. The biggest risk is if interest rates rise (thus
lowering bond prices) at the same time stock prices are dropping. Then
convertibles suffer a double whammy.
The decision to convert depends on a characteristic of convertibles
known as its "conversion premium." When you buy a convertible,
you buy it at a price above the par value of the bond. Say you buy a
convertible at $1,100 a share. You also need to know the conversion
ratio, which is how many shares you can exchange the convertible for
at the time you buy the convertible. Multiply the conversion ratio times
the price of the stock. Say that result is $900 -that is, you can convert
the convertible bond into $900 worth of stock. The difference between
the convertible price ($1,100) and the $900 in stock is the conversion
premium -in this example, 99 percent.
Conversion premiums commonly run at 20 to 35 percent, though they can
go much higher. The lower the premium, the more likely the convertible
will track the stock value up and down. Higher premium convertibles
act more like bonds and make it less likely the stock's value will climb
high enough to make it worth converting. The extra yield on the convertible
is what eventually should make up for the premium.
On a risk/reward basis, proponents argue that convertibles can share
in roughly 60 to 75 percent of a stock's upside, but with only 30 to
50 percent of the downside risk. For example, in November 2002, the
Morgan Stanley U.S. 225 Convertible Index was down about 10 percent,
while the underlying equities were down 30 percent. Critics argue, however,
that overall the risk/reward ratio is actually much closer, so you are
no better off than if you simply bought regular bonds and stocks.
One of the risks of convertibles is that new companies and high techs
are more apt to issue convertibles than blue chippers, so they can be
pretty volatile. Another risk is that many convertibles are issued based
on bonds rated below investment grade.
Investors also need to be wary of call features. Issues usually can't
call sooner than three years, but there is the risk that if you pay
a high premium you won't have time to make it up through interest or
dividend payments before a call. As is apparent, convertibles are a
complicated security. If you're interested, discuss them with your financial
advisor.
January -30- 2002
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,
Prime Retirement Asset Management, Inc (PRAM)
Securities offered through Prime Capital Services,
Inc (PCS).~ Member FINRA/SIPC.
Investment Advisory Services offered through Asset & Financial
Planning, LTD. (AFP). PCS and AFP are affiliated entities.
Prime Retirement Asset Management (PRAM), Inc., PRAM, LLC, Prime Wealth Management, LLC (PWM), are not affiliated with PCS or AFP.
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